The tropics are a muddle as hurricane season nears, primed for neither virility or tranquility, but shedding enough clues to prompt another forecast for an above-normal season.
NOAA’s prediction of 13 to 19 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes, follows others this spring that have measured the Atlantic basin’s stew of ingredients and influential climate patterns to determine that the six months following the June 1 start date will be more active than average.
A normal hurricane season based on an average from the years 1991-2020 has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. “We have to be prepared right now,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham during the release of the 2025 forecast on May 22. “There are no lines for supplies today, no lines for gas, no lines for water or plywood. So while there are no lines, it’s a good time to go and get supplies.” It’s been a decade since the Atlantic basin moseyed through hurricane season with below-normal storm activity based on accumulated cyclone energy. The index, which measures a storm’s strength and longevity, reached 62 in 2015 when the average was 92. That year had just 11 named storms.
Then Hurricane Matthew in 2016 kicked off a years-long spate of trouble with seasons that have ranged from a low of 14 named storms in 2022 to the record high of 30 in 2020. “A busy season can have very few impacts and a quiet season can have one big impact depending on where you live,” said meteorologist and hurricane researcher Andy Hazelton in a May 20 review of the weather setup in the tropics. “Everything in the Atlantic is sort of mixed right now and how these factors change over the next couple of weeks and months as we head into season will tell us whether it’s an average or above-average season.”
How will NOAA budget cuts affect hurricane forecasting in 2025? While the May 22 announcement was focused on the hurricane season forecast, NOAA officials were peppered with questions about how federal budget cuts and potential changes to FEMA will affect forecasting and recovery. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said “weather prediction modeling and protecting human lives” were the administration’s top priorities and that the National Hurricane Center is fully staffed.
That’s not the case for many of the nation’s 120 local weather forecasting offices where employees were let go, balloon launches have been reduced and vacancies are unfilled. The National Weather Service office in Miami shows five vacant positions for meteorologists on its website.
“I’m going to make sure our offices are going to have the resources they need to make sure every warning goes out,” said Graham, who previously served as the director of the National Hurricane Center. “We had some folks go, but we are going to make sure we have everything we need on our front lines.”
Why do El Niño and La Niña matter to Florida hurricane forecasts? One forecasting challenge this year is that the atmosphere is idling in a climate purgatory between El Niño and La Niña.
El Niño typically points to a less active season. A La Niña pattern can mean a more active season.
But a neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is expected to last at least through August — the beginning of peak hurricane season. Chances that the neutral pattern will endure through October are near 50%, according to a Climate Prediction Center forecast issued May 8. During the neutral phase, an average of two to three more named storms than average are possible. But it’s also prone to being swayed by other factors, such as sea-surface temperatures and more transient weather patterns like the cyclone enticing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a traveling pulse of thunderstorms that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days and is known to provoke tropical activity.
Warmer sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content feed hurricanes NOAA’s forecast says there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season this year largely based on warmer ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and more activity from the West African Monsoon, which is the birthplace for tropical waves. There is only a 10% chance for a below-normal season, according to NOAA.
Sea-surface temperatures in the runway between Africa and the Caribbean where those tropical waves grow to hurricanes are cooler than in past years but generally running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal. Waters in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, called the Gulf of America by the U.S. government, are more steamy, coming in 4 to 5 degrees above average. 2025 is the 20th anniversary of hurricanes Katrina and Wilma The 2025 seasonal forecasts are being issued amid a backdrop of the 20-year anniversaries of hurricanes Katrina and Wilma. The devastating storms brewed in a neutral ENSO atmosphere.
Katrina made landfall as a large Category 3 hurricane on Aug. 29 near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana. It is responsible for a record 28-foot storm surge and an estimated 1,400 deaths.
Hurricane Wilma, whose anniversary will be recognized on Oct. 24, made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 3, and is still the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record based on central pressure. What happened during the 2024 hurricane season in Florida? Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida in 2024. Category 1 Hurricane Debby hit near Steinhatchee on Aug. 5, Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry in the Big Bend region on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 storm, and Hurricane Milton landed near Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm on Oct. 9. A report on Helene released by the National Hurricane Center on March 19 said the storm was responsible for at least 249 fatalities. That makes it the deadliest hurricane in the contiguous United States since 2005’s Katrina.
In Florida, a total of 34 people were killed, including 14 who drowned in storm surge.
But North Carolina suffered the highest number of total deaths at 106, with 85 people dying as a direct result of the storm from freshwater flooding and high winds.
Although NOAA doesn’t predict where hurricanes will make landfall each season, Colorado State University started using a new method in 2023 to determine the probability of a storm tracking within 50 miles of an area using NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website.
According to CSU’s hurricane season forecast issued in April, Palm Beach County has a 50% chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles of its coast. That’s above the climatological average of 42%. The only counties with higher chances are Monroe (61%), Miami-Dade (51%) and Brevard (51%).
Martin and St. Lucie counties have a 45% chance and 43% chance, respectively, of a named storm passing within 50 miles of their coasts.
